While no date has been given for the signing of the final agreement, Kaplan speculates that it will be very soon. The peace talks have come a long way since originally beginning in November of 2012. The three-and-a-half years of negotiating still have some obstacles to clear and, according to Kaplan, will require support from the international community.
As for the rest of the negotiations,油there are final details surrounding the FARCs demobilization, as well as the implementation, funding and monitoring of the agreement, says Kaplan. Thats where the international community has an important role to assist the油parties油and hold them to their commitments.
But even with that support, what guarantee is there that the peace agreement will hold for the long term? After all, these are rebels who have lived a life of war and conflict for more than 50 years. There are signs that point to the peace agreement working, according to Kaplan. He cites the fact that as the peace talks have advanced, Colombians are celebrating this event as the end to the fighting.
At this point, theres no going back. For the rebels part, they are still pursuing their socialist ideals, but at this point many are also war-weary and looking toward peace, says Kaplan. It will not be easy for these fighters to reintegrate back into society after being in el monte (the mountains) for so long, and some have themselves also been victimized and suffered due to the conflict.
Fortunately, Kaplan says, Colombia has a strong reintegration program. Hes done research that suggests that educational programs may be especially important for curbing guerrilla recidivism. Those educational programs and the international communitys willingness to hold both sides accountable could be key to the peace agreements longevity.
If they do, says Kaplan of the international communitys accountability efforts, its likely that the final agreement will stick.
This doesnt mean that all conflict would end. Kaplan warns of the possibility that security could continue to be threatened by neo-paramilitary criminal bands that are present in many parts of the country.
